HIV, marital dissolution and migration: a longitudinal analysis of female migration in rural Uganda

Elizabeth A. Sully, Princeton University
Georges Reniers, Princeton University
Ivan Kasamba, Medical Research Council Programme on AIDS

Migration is regarded as a key element in the transmission of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper investigates an under-explored causal mechanism; hypothesizing that HIV-positive individuals are more likely to migrate than HIV-negative individuals, with marital dissolution as the mediating mechanism. Using 10 years of longitudinal data from an open-population cohort in rural Uganda, discrete-time event-history analysis is used to determine event-sequencing. Marital dissolution is examined not as a single event, but rather as a dynamic process overlapping with migration. HIV-positive women, but not men, were more likely to migrate than their HIV-negative counterparts. While previous research has shown an association between HIV and marital dissolution, and marital dissolution and migration, this analysis shows a distinct gendered phenomenon, where HIV-positive women have a large and significant increased risk of experiencing the combined events.