The demography of armed conflict: reconstructing demographic estimates before, during and in the aftermath of the 1998 – 2004 D. R. Congo armed conflict

Richard Kapend, University of Southampton
Andy Hinde, University of Southampton
Jakub Bijak, University of Southampton

In an effort to scientifically document and monitor the scale and scope of recent conflicts (1998-2004) in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) the International Rescue Committee (IRC), in conjunction with some of the world’s leading epidemiologists, conducted a series of five surveys in the country over a seven years’ period (2000 – 2007). Estimates of mortality generated from the IRC’s surveys range from 3.3 million deaths between years 1998 and 2002, to 5.4 million deaths in the period between 1998 and 2007. Reflecting from the IRC’s work, study aims to combine four different data sources – 1984 DRC Population Census, 1995 & 2001 DRC Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and the 2007 DRC Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) – through statistical and demographic techniques to reconstruct demographic trends then assess the extent of change in demographic components to be associated with the conflict period (1998 – 2007) in the DRC.