Modelling fertility levels and patterns in Uganda

Pauline Akol, Makerere University
Gideon Rutaremwa, Makerere University

The main objective of the study was to model the fertility levels and patterns in Uganda in the period 1988 to 2006. It based on the persistent high fertility in Uganda over the past decades. The study applied two fertility models to estimate the fertility rates, to quantify the effect of the proximate determinants on fertility, and to project the Total fertility Rate of Uganda in the next years up to 2050 using the DemProj. The research used data from the 1988/9, 1995, 2001 and 2006 Uganda demographic and health surveys and 1991 & 2002 population census. Findings show that fertility level is high and has been consistently above 6 children over the past decades and it is projected to have an estimated TFR of 5.2 by 2025. Application of the Bongaarts model established that marriage had the strongest inhibiting effect on Ugandan fertility over the study period.