Patterns and determinants of poverty transitions among poor urban households in Nairobi, Kenya

Blessing Mberu, African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)
James Ciera, African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)
Patricia Elungata, African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)
Alex C. Ezeh, African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)

Using longitudinal data, we examine patterns and determinants of household transitions in and out of poverty in Nairobi, 2006 to 2009. Among 6635 households, the poor increased from 51.2% in 2006 to 54.9% in 2009. Over the period, 22% of households remained poor; 28.4% of households remained out of poverty, 16.7% of households escaped poverty, and 20.4% of households fell into poverty. We observed significant yearly status volatility: 34%, 53.3% and 62.2% of households switched status in 2007, 2008 and 2009 respectively. The slum of residence, ethnic origin, marital status, gender, household size and age of head are key determinants of transition in and out of poverty, to which include educational attainment, number of births and years in employment are predictors of remaining in or staying out of poverty. The study finds more households fall in than move out of poverty, and calls for place and sub-group specific interventions.