Do cash transfers impact childbearing and childrearing? Experimental evidence from sub-Saharan Africa (WITHDRAWN)

Guy Stecklov, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Paul Winters, Inter-American Development Bank

Cash transfer programs are rapidly becoming the tool of choice to address poverty in developing countries, but there is a possibility that these programs raise fertility in poor countries. This research analyzes two cash transfer programs in Malawi and Kenya. Our analysis explores whether the programs also influence the residency patterns of children. Our results provide overall supportive evidence that SCTs do not generate large and unintentional childbearing incentives. There is no evidence from these programs that they create incentives that lead to either rises or declines in childbearing. In contrast, analyses of older children provide some indication – at least for Malawi – that cash transfers affect the living arrangements of older children, although this result does not hold up to more careful scrutiny and a more rigorous treatment of the experimental design. This research provides some reassurance that childbearing externalities will not be a major unexpected outcome.