Kenya’s looming youth bulge: infinite possibility or definite disaster?

Katindi S. Njonjo, Institute of Economic Affairs, Kenya

The main objective of this paper is to review Kenya’s population trends with reference to population growth, age structure, distribution, and its future implications on social, economic and political development. Due to the recognition that people’s social and economic behaviour and needs vary at different stages of the lifecycle, the Age-Structural Transitions (ASTs) model will be used to discuss Kenya’s demographic transition in order to establish the varied impacts these transition may have. This report will mainly be developed through the analysis of already existing primary data and other secondary sources. The findings of the study are expected to reveal that Kenya’s population structure will transition from a child rich to a youthful population (a phenomenon popularly referred to as a youth bulge). This can bring considerable benefits or insurmountable challenges such as high population growth rates, increased rural to urban migration as well as increased resource and civil conflicts.