Social and ecological drivers of birth seasonality in sub-Saharan Africa

Audrey Dorelien, Princeton University

Seasonality of birth is an essential but under studied feature of fertility patterns in developing countries. In much of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), birth rates are seasonal and the fluctuations in births are some of the strongest in modern times. Yet the cause of the seasonal variation is not fully understood. There are complex sets of determinants that could influence the seasonality of births. In this paper, we test to what extent four groups of hypotheses–social factors, climatological factors, energetic/labor force factors, and diseases are determinants of birth seasonality in sub-Saharan Africa. These hypotheses are not mutually exclusive and may exert their influence on birth seasonality concurrently. The findings in this paper will help us better understand the fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa (especially the role of social and environmental factors); and will give us important insight on how birth seasonality and overall fertility may respond to climate change.